By Vicky Sidler | Published 19 June 2025 at 16:30 GMT

On 2 April 2025, the US government celebrated “Liberation Day”—not with fireworks, but with tariffs so steep they made your shipping invoice look like a ransom note.

Now, in June, businesses are still sifting through the fallout. Supply chains are wobbling. Export optimism is tanking. And half of the companies surveyed don’t expect growth at all next year.

So if you’re feeling confused about going global in 2026, you’re not alone. But as a Duct Tape Marketing Strategist and StoryBrand Certified Guide, I’ve seen businesses survive worse. You don’t need a crystal ball—you need a clear plan.

Here’s what’s actually happening—and what smart exporters are doing next, according to the Allianz Trade Global Survey 2025.

TL;DR:

The world’s trading system is wobbly. Be the one that stays upright.

• US tariffs are down from 103% to 39%, but they’re still unpredictable

• Most exporters don’t expect sales to grow next year

• Businesses are halting production, changing shipping routes, and rewriting contracts

• Diversification isn’t optional anymore—it’s urgent

• Export success in 2026 will belong to companies that move early, stay lean, and hedge their risks

1. Reassess Demand Before It Smacks You in the Forecast:

The percentage of exporters expecting revenue to drop shot from 5% to 42% after “Liberation Day.”

That’s not a typo. It’s a reset.

The companies doing well now are dialling down forecasts, focusing on their most stable markets, and moving fast when something changes. Think of this less like goal-setting, more like chess—plan ahead, but expect your opponent to change the board.

What to do:

• Build shorter forecasting windows.
  If your sales plan still stretches 12 months ahead like it’s 2019, rein it in. Try 30–60 days max. It’s easier to dodge potholes when you’re not staring at the horizon.

• Prioritise recession-proof markets.
  Essential goods. Repeat buyers. Countries with steady trade policies. If your best customer is a politically volatile market buying luxury widgets... maybe start dating other markets.

• Invest in decision-making speed, not perfection.
  Perfect plans are slow plans. Focus on systems that let you test and act quickly—because waiting for perfect data is how you end up reacting instead of adapting.

2. Fix the Leaks in Your Operations:

Foreign Exchange (FX) volatility and rising import costs are making it harder to run a predictable operation. Nearly 1 in 3 businesses are halting production or pulling the plug on offshore work.

In Germany, it’s all about cost-cutting. In China, it’s full-on reinvention. But the common thread is operational flexibility. If you’re still running the same playbook from 2022, it’s time for a rewrite.

What to do:

• Audit your processes for quick wins.
  Grab a whiteboard. Map out your steps. Kill anything that wastes time, causes delays, or feels like it was invented in the fax era.

• Automate anything that eats time but doesn’t add value.
  Think quotes, invoices, stock updates—not customer conversations or strategy. Use automation to create breathing room, not to replace your brain.

• Consider nearshoring if distance is killing delivery times.
  Shorter routes = fewer headaches. If a weeklong shipping delay regularly turns into a month of explaining things to angry clients, it might be time to move your supplier closer to home.

3. Your Payment Terms Are Too Nice:

More than half of exporters are now seeing delayed payments. The bigger the company, the longer the delay. And 50% expect non-payment risk to rise.

Translation? If your entire cash flow depends on one buyer paying on time, you’re playing a dangerous game.

What to do:

• Renegotiate payment terms that protect you.
  Longer terms help them, not you. Push for deposits. Incentivise early payment. Add penalties for late ones. You’re not a bank—don’t act like one.

• Get trade credit insurance before you need it.
  If you’re hoping your biggest client will “come right eventually,” you’re already gambling. Credit insurance is like a helmet—useless if you put it on after the crash.

• Diversify how you finance exports—don’t rely on payment terms alone.
  Mix in cash flow forecasting, bank lines, maybe even external investors. A backup plan is no longer optional.

4. Build a Supply Chain That Can Dodge Bullets:

US tariffs on Chinese goods dropped to 39% (from 103%), but they’re still nearly double what they were before Trump’s second term.

Businesses are reacting fast:

• 79% frontloaded imports before tariffs kicked in

• 62% are re-routing shipping paths

• 59% now add pricing clauses to hedge against FX swings

If your supply chain still looks like a straight line, it’s time to sketch a spiderweb.

What to do:

• Stress-test your current logistics routes.
  What happens if your main port shuts down or customs goes rogue? Don’t wait to find out. Map it now.

• Add fallback suppliers and alt shipping methods.
  Your Plan B needs its own Plan B. Even if you never use them, knowing they exist keeps you from sweating every policy shift.

• Move to Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) if customs is killing your cash.
  Let your seller take the customs hit. Sure, it may cost more upfront, but it buys you predictability—and fewer calls to border control.

5. Stop Putting All Your Eggs in the Same Market:

One-third of businesses are already diversifying their markets and suppliers. Another two-thirds plan to do the same.

US companies are leaning into Europe and South America. Chinese exporters are strengthening ties with Southeast Asia. The message is clear: global trade is decoupling, and you should too.

What to do:

• Explore emerging trade partners based on your industry.
  Don’t chase buzz. Look for growing demand, favourable agreements, and sectors where your product solves a real problem.

• Re-map your top markets by risk, not just revenue.
  High sales are great—until they disappear overnight. Rank markets by political stability, currency swings, and ease of doing business.

• Build supplier redundancy into your contracts.
  Lock in at least one backup supplier per critical item. And write the clause so you can pivot fast, without a legal drama.

Get Clear. Get Confident. Go Global.

Tariffs, payments, logistics, and buyer trust—it’s a lot to juggle. But if your messaging is still vague, even the best export strategy will fall flat.

If you can’t explain what you do clearly, your prospects will scroll on, no matter how good your supply chain is.

Grab the 5-Minute Marketing Fix. It’s a simple tool that helps you clarify your offer, build trust, and say what you do in a way that lands—even across borders.

👉 Download it here.

And no, it won’t take five weeks.