By Vicky Sidler | Published 18 June 2025 at 13:30 GMT

The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index just climbed for the first time since December. That’s the good news.

Now the bad news: the same survey says uncertainty is up, inventory is low, and Trump’s tax bill is stuck in political limbo.

So yeah—your business may finally catch a break, but don’t throw a party just yet.

TL;DR:

Small business owners are finally feeling a bit of relief—but the road ahead is still foggy. Yes, optimism is rising. But so is uncertainty around taxes, stock levels, and hiring.

Here’s the quick read:

• Tariffs dropped = short-term sales boost

• Inventory’s tight = plan now or scramble later

• Messaging matters = confused customers don’t convert (so grab the 5-Minute Marketing Fix and sort it out)

Bottom line? Keep your hopes up—but keep your strategy sharper. And maybe don’t let Elon Musk and Trump handle your financial future.

What’s Behind the Optimism?

The index rose three points in May, landing at 98.8. That’s not world-changing, but it’s the first real sign of hope in months.

The boost mostly came from:

• Tariff relief: Trump’s team dropped tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% (through August).

• Sales expectations: 10% of small businesses now expect higher inflation-adjusted sales—a jump of 11 points.

• Better outlook: More business owners are predicting improved conditions ahead.

Translation: a little breathing room goes a long way.

So Why Are People Still Nervous?

Because the fine print tells a different story. The survey’s uncertainty index also rose—up two points to 94. And for good reason:

• The “big beautiful bill” is stuck: Trump’s tax plan passed the House but faces pushback in the Senate. No one knows how this ends.

• Inventory is tight: More owners say their stock is “too low” than at any time since 2022. Delivery delays aren’t helping.

• Labour’s cooling off: Fewer firms are raising wages. Even fewer see “labour quality” as their top problem. Translation? Hiring has slowed.

And let’s not forget the looming feud between Trump and Elon Musk over the tax bill. Because what small business owner doesn’t want their financial future tied to a billionaire cage match?

What Should You Actually Do About All This?

As a Duct Tape Marketing Strategist and StoryBrand Certified Guide, I’ve helped businesses grow through far worse. And the lesson is always the same: optimism is good, but clarity wins.

There’s nothing you can do about Washington gridlock or a supply chain stuck in second gear. But you can make smarter decisions in your business, starting with:

1️⃣ Stock what sells: If inventory is a concern, run a quick audit. What’s moving fastest? Double down there before shortages kick in.

2️⃣ Pause before panic: Just because optimism is up doesn’t mean the economy is fixed. Stay lean, watch your numbers, and keep cash flowing.

3️⃣ Focus on messaging: When uncertainty spikes, clear communication becomes your best asset. If your offer isn’t obvious to a 16-year-old, it’s time to sharpen it.

Get Clear. Get Confident. Get Competitive.

If your business messaging still sounds like it was written by someone with one eye on the "Big Beautiful Bill" and the other on an overworked spreadsheet, it's time for a fix.

Grab the 5-Minute Marketing Fix—a quick, no-BS tool to explain what you do, attract better leads, and stop sounding like a confused politician.

👉 Get your free 5-Minute Marketing Fix here.

And if Elon Musk and Trump do end up sorting out your tax bill on X, try not to read the comments.