By Vicky Sidler | Published 6 February 2026 at 12:00 GMT+2

Three years ago, artificial intelligence felt like a friendly assistant that showed up early, worked late, and never complained. Today, it feels more like a very confident intern who keeps asking for a bigger budget and a faster laptop while promising greatness just around the corner.

That shift matters, because a recent warning from a veteran asset manager suggests that one of the biggest names in AI may be wobbling under the weight of its own ambition.

According to Futurism, former Fidelity manager George Noble has publicly warned that OpenAI could be heading for serious financial trouble, and possibly much sooner than anyone expected.

TL;DR:

• OpenAI is reportedly burning $12 billion per quarter and $15 million per day on single tools

• Unlike Google, it has no stable revenue to support massive AI infrastructure costs

• Each new AI model costs more but delivers smaller benefits

• Investors are comparing the hype to past tech collapses

• If OpenAI fails, AI will continue—but without the expensive marketing show

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Table of Contents:

The Warning That Made Investors Nervous:

Noble is not some YouTube commentator with a suspiciously good microphone and a strong opinion about everything from quantum computing to oat milk. He’s spent decades watching companies grow, stumble, and sometimes flame out with the intensity of a paper factory fire. And from his vantage point, OpenAI is ticking all the wrong boxes.

He says the company might already be “falling apart in real time,” pointing to user growth that has started to slow and a financial burn rate that sounds less like a tech firm and more like a bonfire made of cash.

His claim? OpenAI is losing around $12 billion per quarter and reportedly spending $15 million every day on its text-to-video generator app Sora. Even for Silicon Valley, that’s not sustainable. That’s a racecar engine running on a paper-thin wallet.

Why This Isn’t Just Another Big Tech Story:

Now, you might be thinking: who cares if a multibillion-dollar AI lab is over-promising again? But this story isn’t about OpenAI the company. It’s about the fragile logic that props up so many of the tools we’ve all started relying on.

Google and Microsoft can afford to play with AI because they have profitable empires in search, ads, and software. They can throw resources at massive data centres and chalk it up as a research expense.

OpenAI, by contrast, doesn’t have that luxury. It’s raised mountains of capital, yes, but without a dependable revenue engine to keep the lights on, it's now stuffing ads into ChatGPT and pushing hard for paid subscriptions—signs of a business model hunting for stability rather than building from it.

Diminishing Returns Are Not Just a Theory:

And here’s where the maths gets awkward. Noble points out that the cost to improve these models is rising faster than the benefits they deliver. He put it plainly: it now takes five times the energy and money to make something just twice as good.

Once upon a time, ChatGPT getting smarter felt like magic. Now, each upgrade demands exponentially more computing power, more server space, and more electricity.

And the gains? Well, they’re starting to look a lot like software updates that fix bugs you didn’t know existed but somehow break the thing you liked.

This is what economists call diminishing returns. What Noble calls “the low-hanging fruit is gone.” And what most small business owners recognise instantly as “great, now it costs more and does less.”

A Pattern We’ve All Seen Before:

The warning signs aren’t new. Noble even compared OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman’s behaviour during a tense podcast moment—where he bristled at financial questions—to infamous meltdowns by CEOs during the Enron scandal.

Whether or not the comparison is fair, it’s a reminder that defensive leadership, unclear balance sheets, and vague roadmaps tend to end one way. And it’s rarely with confetti and a group photo.

Another expert, Sebastian Mallaby from the Council on Foreign Relations, echoed Noble’s concerns in the New York Times, suggesting OpenAI could run out of money within 18 months. His view was more restrained but no less clear: if OpenAI collapses, it won’t mean the end of AI. Just the end of the most heavily marketed version of it.

What Smart Businesses Should Take Away:

If you run a small business, this is your cue to breathe. The point here is not to stop using AI. It’s to stop treating it like a silver bullet that will somehow fix your marketing, your operations, and your customer service all at once.

Use AI to write faster, respond quicker, and make sense of the chaos. But don’t rely on it to build your brand or close your sales. That still requires human thinking, human judgment, and a message that makes sense to actual humans.

If you’ve been waiting for the hype to settle before you commit to a marketing plan, congratulations—you’re not crazy, you’re cautious. And if you want a marketing system that doesn’t collapse the moment a trendy tool hits a wall, start with a clear message. Something stable. Something true.

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Frequently Asked Questions About OpenAI’s Financial Problems and What It Means for Small Businesses

1. What’s actually going wrong with OpenAI financially?

According to expert investors, OpenAI is losing billions every quarter and spending millions per day to keep tools like Sora running. It doesn’t have a strong revenue base to support this level of spending.

2. Is OpenAI going bankrupt?

It’s not bankrupt yet, but some analysts warn it could run out of money within 18 months if current spending continues and revenue doesn’t improve. This is a warning sign, not a confirmed outcome.

3. Why is OpenAI losing so much money?

The main issue is that improving AI now costs far more in energy, infrastructure, and computing power—but the performance gains are getting smaller. That mismatch is what investors call “diminishing returns.”

4. Is this the end of ChatGPT?

Not necessarily. Even if OpenAI fails, the technology may continue under different ownership or structure. But small business owners should prepare for the possibility that the tool could change, break, or disappear.

5. How is OpenAI different from Google or Microsoft?

Google and Microsoft use profitable businesses to fund their AI projects. OpenAI doesn’t have that kind of safety net. It depends heavily on investor funding and is under pressure to make money fast.

6. Should I stop using ChatGPT in my business?

No, but don’t rely on it completely. Use it to support tasks like writing drafts, summarising info, or organising ideas—but keep control over your strategy, message, and customer communication.

7. What does this mean for small business marketing?

It’s a reminder to build your marketing on stable foundations—your message, your systems, and your owned channels. Tools like AI are helpful, but they’re not a replacement for strategy.

8. What’s a better long-term marketing approach than relying on AI?

Focus on clarity, consistency, and systems. Build an email list. Strengthen your message. Use simple tools that don’t collapse if one platform changes. The 5 Minute Marketing Fix is a good place to start.

9. What’s the “AI hype cycle” and why does it matter?

The AI hype cycle describes the rapid rise in expectations for AI tools followed by a period where many don’t live up to those promises. It matters because businesses that bought in too fast might get burned.

10. How do I future-proof my marketing from tech failures like this?

Don’t depend on any single platform or tool. Get your messaging right, document your processes, and make sure your business doesn’t fall apart just because one app does. Systems and structure beat shiny tools every time.